Polymarket traders predict no jail for FTX’s Ellison

Polymarket investors are betting that former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison won’t serve time.

Hours before a judge is set to decide Ellison’s fate, users on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket wagered more than $153,670 in a market titled “No Jail Time” under the category “Caroline Ellison jail time.” More than 45% of users predict Ellison will avoid jail time following her deal with U.S. authorities in the FTX case against convicted crypto figure Sam Bankman-Fried.

The second-largest group of bettors, 24%, predicted the judge could sentence Ellison to up to two years in prison, while 39% predicted an 11-month sentence for Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend and former Alameda president.

Lawyers for the former FTX executive asked the judge to grant probation and no prison time. Earlier this month, his lawyers argued that Ellison’s cooperation with federal prosecutors played a key role in securing SBF’s conviction.

That sentiment was challenged outside court by another former FTX senior, Ryan Salame, whose social media posts accused Ellison and other former employees of downplaying their role in the firm’s eventual collapse.

Ellison’s sentencing was scheduled for September 24, making him the first FTX executive other than Bankman-Fried to receive such a verdict. Other former members of SBF’s inner circle, including Gary Wang and Nishad Singh, are also awaiting sentencing.

Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried’s lawyers have filed a final appeal challenging Judge Lewis Kaplan’s 25-year sentence, claiming judicial bias. The SBF has filed court documents requesting a new trial, claiming he did not intend to harm anyone.

Judge Kaplan found SBF guilty of defrauding FTX users and investors of more than $8 billion in what is considered one of the largest fraud cases in U.S. history. According to SBF’s new attorney, the case was unfair and his client was found guilty from the very beginning.