Polymarket users wager on Harris defeating Trump

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market backed by Polygon.

Less than a month ago, Trump was the frontrunner among US presidential candidates and the presumed winner. Surviving an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and delivering a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve speech in Nashville boosted Trump’s chances at Polymarket to over 70%.

Much has changed since then, and Trump’s victory now appears uncertain, at least according to users of the on-chain prediction platform. Harris now has a 52% chance of winning the November election, while Trump has a 46% chance. The remaining 2% is spread out among other options, including individual candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

There are doubts about Trump’s ability to execute on his promised crypto policies, and less is known about Harris’ approach to the fledgling world of digital assets. On the one hand, Trump and Republican politicians like Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis have proposed protecting America’s Bitcoin stockpiles. Lummis’ bill also includes provisions to buy more Bitcoin.

Harris recently announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, a move that was criticized by crypto industry stakeholders as anti-crypto. Figures like Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, have highlighted that Walz has previously lobbied for tighter crypto oversight to protect U.S. financial stability.

Cryptocurrency advocates have also expressed skepticism about the future of blockchain technology if Democrats win a second consecutive term in the White House.

The ongoing so-called “Operation Choke Point 2.0” has sparked backlash across the Web3 ecosystem, with regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launching a widespread crackdown on several crypto businesses, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple.

Additionally, the crypto industry has criticized moves by digital asset businesses to close banks and cut off blockchain services from the traditional financial system. Last week, the Federal Reserve investigated crypto-friendly Customers Bancorp, Inc. and its subsidiary Customers Bank for compliance with the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering rules.