Quiet on crypto, but her legacy speaks volumes

Does Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s rise to power herald the emergence of a crypto-friendly Thailand, or is his silence on the matter a sign of caution?

Who is Thailand’s new prime minister and why is he important?

Thailand made history by electing 37-year-old politician Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a member of one of the country’s most influential and controversial families, as its youngest prime minister.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of controversial billionaire and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has officially become Thailand’s youngest prime minister following a royal assent ceremony. picture.twitter.com/HTmtiRTIvL

— DW News (@dwnews) August 19, 2024

Paetongtarn is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose reign between 2001 and 2006 was marked by rapid economic growth but also deep political divisions.

Thaksin’s policies earned him both loyal supporters and harsh critics, eventually leading to his ouster in a military coup in 2006 and subsequent exile in 2008.

Thaksin made a highly publicized return to Thailand last year after a 15-year absence, prompting speculation that he has a continuing influence over Thai politics. The Shinawatra legacy does not end there.

Paetongtarn’s aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, served as Prime Minister from 2011 to 2014 before being overthrown in another coup and going into exile.

With Paetongtarn assuming the role, he becomes the third member of his family to hold Thailand’s highest political office, given the Shinawatras’ enduring influence on Thai politics.

Paetongtarn’s rise to power came after his predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was ousted by Thailand’s Constitutional Court, where he was found guilty of ethics violations in appointing a Cabinet minister who had previously been jailed for attempting to bribe a judge.

There has been much speculation that Paetongtarn could lead Thailand towards becoming a crypto-friendly country. His father, Thaksin, is known to be a crypto advocate, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), and many believe his influence could push Thailand towards crypto adoption.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra has officially become Thailand’s youngest prime minister. He’s a crypto bull. His father was a crypto bull. I think Thailand could be the next country to adopt crypto as legal tender. Let’s see how it goes. pic.twitter.com/dHx648Pse9

— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) August 18, 2024

Despite all this speculation, however, Paetongtarn has remained conspicuously silent on his stance on cryptocurrencies since taking office.

Paetongtarn promises to make Thailand a place where people “dare to dream, create and shape their own future.” So what does this vision mean for the future of cryptocurrencies in Thailand?

While Paetongtarn has largely remained silent on the cryptocurrency issue since taking office, his father’s enthusiasm for digital assets has fueled speculation that he could follow in his footsteps.

Coin Rivet reported in 2019 that Thaksin likened blockchain’s potential to the early days of the internet and predicted it would create “new riches” among young entrepreneurs willing to embrace the opportunities it presents.

Highlighting how blockchain technology can transform industries by making business practices more transparent and efficient, the expert said, as an example, that a Rwandan coffee company used blockchain technology to connect local suppliers with high-end retailers.

Thaksin’s interactions with the crypto world aren’t just limited to words. He has good connections with Thailand’s fintech and crypto communities, as evidenced by his meetings with prominent figures in the industry.

In May 2024, Thaksin met with Worawat Narknawdee, a crypto investor and one of Thailand’s leading Bitcoin miners, further reinforcing his pro-crypto stance, the Bangkok Post reported.

Adding further curiosity to Thaksin’s crypto connection is a recent social media post that has been circulating, showing four different photos of Thaksin in his office, each with a clock in the background that tracks the price of Bitcoin at various periods.

BREAKING NEWS: 🇹🇭 Thailand has elected 37-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister.

His father, Thaksin Shinawatra, himself a former prime minister, keeps a BlockClock in his office 👀 pic.twitter.com/IWJFte1qRk

— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNewsCom) August 16, 2024

The images, which were likely taken at different time intervals, fueled speculation that Thaksin was closely monitoring BTC’s price performance, reinforcing the idea that he was deeply invested in the crypto world.

But while Thaksin’s views are well-documented, Paetongtarn has yet to publicly state his stance on cryptocurrency, leaving room for speculation and debate over the direction he will take.

Thailand’s steps towards crypto integration

Thailand has been taking steps towards integrating crypto into its financial system, with one of the most notable steps being the launch of the Digital Asset Regulation Sandbox.

The pilot environment, which was launched on August 9, is designed to “facilitate experimentation and development of innovations that support the effective provision of digital asset services in a real-life context,” according to the Thailand SEC.

Simply put, it allows participants to test various cryptocurrency-related services under flexible rules, encouraging new ideas while ensuring the development of these services in a safe environment.

The pilot environment focuses on six main areas: exchanges, brokers, processors, fund managers, advisors, and custody wallet providers.

To participate, companies must demonstrate that they have solid qualifications, such as sufficient capital and strong management systems, so that only those with solid fundamentals can try out these new technologies.

The creation of this virtual space follows a clear trend of crypto-friendly actions by the Thai government, which has been gradually implementing measures to support the growth of the crypto market over the past few years.

For example, the Thai cabinet approved a tax exemption for crypto profits from investment tokens in March 2024, aiming to boost the country’s digital finance competitiveness.

Following this, the SEC’s approval of Thailand’s first Bitcoin ETF has once again demonstrated the country’s commitment to supporting digital assets.

However, not all of Thailand’s recent digital plans have been received positively.

The government’s Digital Wallet program, announced in April and sparking widespread debate, aims to provide 50 million citizens with 10,000 baht (about $275) in digital currency to spend at local businesses.

The idea is a key election promise of the ruling Pheu Thai party, but has been criticised for being too restrictive.

To participate in the program, citizens must meet certain criteria, including being over 16, earning less than 840,000 baht ($23,710) annually and having savings of less than 500,000 baht ($14,072).

However, the digital currency can only be spent for specific needs at local small businesses and must be used through an official government mobile app.

Some analysts at the Cato Institute argue that the program has the characteristics of a central bank digital currency, despite the government’s claims that the program is not run by the central bank.

The rules on how to spend the money and the requirement to use the official app suggest that this initiative could work like a CBDC without the label.

Can Paetongtarn keep Thailand on the crypto-friendly path?

Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Thavisin, was known for embracing digital assets, raising questions about whether Paetongtarn will follow in his footsteps or bring his own approach.

AMLBot CEO Slava Demchuk shared with crypto.news his exclusive insights that help paint a clearer picture of what the future holds:

Paetongtarn’s father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was bullish on cryptocurrencies. With his leadership, Shinawatra is likely to continue his legacy of innovative financial policies.

Demchuk also noted that Thailand’s recent history of adopting digital assets provides a solid foundation for Paetongtarn to build on:

Thailand has already made great strides in creating a hospitable environment for crypto investors and entrepreneurs. The proactive stance of the Thai SEC has played a key role in this, creating a robust legal framework that has attracted a large number of blockchain companies to the country… Given his family background and the current framework, it is highly likely that Paetongtarn will continue to push Thailand forward in the digital asset space.

Meanwhile, Coindesk reported that Bitazza Thailand CEO Tanawat Sutunthivorakoon believes that Prime Minister Srettha’s removal will have little impact on the country’s digital asset regulations.

Similarly, Cryptomind Advisory CEO Sanjay Popli noted that the ruling Pheu Thai party remains in power, so major changes to current crypto-friendly policies are unlikely.

Adding another layer of complexity is the controversial digital wallet distribution program. According to The Nation, Paetongtarn confirmed the importance of this initiative.

“We plan to use the digital wallet project as a major economic stimulus,” Trump said, suggesting that despite criticism, the program could still play a central role in his government’s economic strategy.

For now, all eyes are on Paetongtarn as he steps into this critical role. With his track record and the strong foundation laid by his predecessors, the odds appear to be in favor of a pro-crypto future for Thailand.

But as with any new leadership, the potential for surprise remains, keeping the global crypto community on alert for what will happen next.