Bitcoin (BTC) faces the risk of falling below its current $60,000 level in the coming hours due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Analysts at British multinational bank Standard Chartered said in a note accessed by The Block that the chances of BTC continuing to fall are high; however, investors should view the drop as an opportunity to increase their holdings in digital assets.
BTC will fall below $60,000
Bitcoin already lost nearly $4,000, from $64,000 to just above $60,000, following Iran’s missile attack on Israel on the first day of the month. The cryptocurrency has hovered between $60,000 and $62,000 since then and was worth $60,500 at the time of writing.
According to the report led by Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, the eventual fall of bitcoin could lead to higher returns for investors because US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump currently has a better chance of winning the next election.
Due to Trump’s pro-crypto stance, analysts expect BTC to experience a major rally if he emerges victorious in the election. Conversely, the asset is likely to fall if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins.
“A Harris win would likely trigger an initial price drop, but we expect investors to buy the dips as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front is still to come,” Kendrick said.
BTC call options are increasing
Data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows that Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased by 1%, while Harris’s have decreased by the same percentage.
“This creates an interesting circularity for bitcoin. Geopolitical concerns may drive prices down, but those same concerns appear to be increasing the odds of Trump, potentially improving Bitcoin’s post-election outlook,” the analyst added.
While the effect of tensions in the Middle East continues to be felt in the market, bitcoin call options are seeing increasing demand. Call options are contracts that allow investors to buy assets at agreed prices on or before a certain date.
Over the course of the two days, open interest in bitcoin call options for December 27 expiration at a strike price of $80,000 has increased by 1,300 BTC on leading crypto options exchange Deribit. The increase in BTC call options indicate that market participants are betting on upward price moves, and according to Kendrick, this may intensify optimism for the asset.
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