The 2 most likely scenarios for BTC in the short term

Bitcoin price remains in a state of indecision, bounded within a tight consolidation range bounded by the 100- and 200-day moving averages.

An imminent break of this range will likely determine the short-term direction of the asset.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

Bitcoin has been stuck in a multi-month consolidation between the $55,000-$71,000 price range since March 2024, with no clear trend or direction.

This extended period of sideways movement indicates a general balance between buyers and sellers, with accumulation at the lower end of the range and distribution at the upper end. Despite this, a bearish sign has appeared recently as Bitcoin broke below the 200-day moving average at $63.4k.

However, the downside momentum was halted upon reaching the 100-day moving average at $61,000, where the price has since entered a low-volatility consolidation phase.

Bitcoin is compressed within a narrow range, bounded by the 100- and 200-day moving averages. This suggests that an impending breakout could determine its near-term direction. A decisive move out of this range would likely signal the next major trend.

Source: TradingView The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, an ascending wedge pattern has formed during the recent extended consolidation phase. The price has been oscillating between the upper and lower limits of this wedge, which usually points to a continuation of the initial downtrend if it breaks to the downside.

After increasing selling pressure near the Fibonacci OTE level of 0.786, Bitcoin experienced a major rejection, causing the price to cascade towards the lower boundary of the wedge.

BTC is consolidating after receiving support at this level, but sellers want to break below the lower trendline of the wedge, which coincides with the $60,000 support region. Should this breakdown occur, the next critical target for Bitcoin will be the $58,000 support region.

Source: TradingView chain analysis

By Shayan

A key on-chain metric to understand the behavior of the Bitcoin market is the UTXO realized price age bands. This metric highlights the average price at which holders acquired their coins, broken down by how long they’ve held them.

Historically, price performance in the 3-6 month (short-term) and 6-12 month (long-term) cohorts have served as critical support or resistance levels. When Bitcoin struggles to break above the average purchase price of these groups, it often signifies a bearish trend. Conversely, if the cryptocurrency can break above this realized price, it suggests growing bullish momentum as new buyers are willing to hold even at higher levels.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is between the realized prices of these two groups:

$64,000 for short-term holders (3-6 months) $55,000 for long-term holders (6-12 months)

Bitcoin recently rallied towards the 3-6 month holder’s realized price of $64,000, indicating a test of this key resistance level. A successful break above this level could signal upside momentum and potentially continue the uptrend. However, if Bitcoin fails to break above this zone, it may suggest renewed short-term selling pressure from holders, leading to bearish pullbacks towards the $55,000 level.

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