The Pro-XRP lawyer reduces the Agency’s chances of appeal

TL;DR

Ripple was ordered to pay a $125 million fine, significantly less than the US SEC’s initial demand, with the two sides able to fight it out until early October. Attorney Bill Morgan now sees a slim chance (45%-55%) of a Commission appeal, based on recent case developments and favorable opinions on Judge Torres’ ruling. Does appeal seem less likely?

The last major development surrounding the lawsuit between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) came in early August when Judge Torres ruled that the company must pay a fine of 125 million of dollars for violating certain securities laws.

Many industry participants interpreted the decision as a major victory for the company, considering that the regulator initially insisted on a penalty of $2 billion. Some even called it the end of the legal battle.

However, the case is still ongoing, as both entities have until the beginning of October to appeal. This move coming from Ripple would be seen as a surprise as the fine represents a 94% deduction from the regulator’s demand. Additionally, CEO Brad Garlinghouse said the company respects the court’s decision, while CLO Stuart Alderoty said the organization will pay the $125 million penalty in cash from its balance sheet.

One person who initially thought there was an 80% chance of an appeal coming from the SEC is pro-XRP attorney Bill Morgan. Recently, however, he reduced the number to 45%-55% after observing the evolution of other cases related to the watchdog and the crypto industry.

For example, Judge Orrick (who is overseeing the lawsuit between Kraken and the SEC) preferred the approach of Judge Jackson (in the Binance case) and Judge Torres over Judge Rakoff (in the Terraform case).

“The favorable comments on aspects of Judge Torres’s reasoning in the Ripple summary judgment decision by Judges Orrick (Kraken case) and Jackson (Binance case) should alleviate doubts about the correctness of her decision raised by some critics such as Gasparino,” Morgan argued. .

Earlier this year, FOX Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino claimed that there were indications that Judge Torres’ legal analysis of the Ripple v. SEC case may be “flawed.”

Morgan noted that Judge Orrick praised the Torres decision as “carefully limited to the facts of the case and based on the findings of a fully developed record.”

Last but not least, Morgan said the SEC can easily distinguish the Ripple case from other lawsuits “because it’s limited to its own facts.”

“Why appeal it, unless of course there are non-legal considerations that influence the decision to appeal,” he concluded.

What if there is an appeal?

One person who believes the SEC could have the upper hand should the case make it to the Court of Appeals is Dennis Kelleher (former senior Senate staffer).

“US SEC 90% Likely to Win on Appeal: Ripple Judge Reversed 90 Years of Law When He Ruled Sophisticated Investors Get Securities Law Protection, Not Unsophisticated Investors That’s why all the other judges have rejected it,” he said in mid-August.

On the other hand, Ripple’s top lawyer, Alderoty, estimated that the agency’s chances of achieving a decisive victory are quite slim, arguing that the aforementioned court overturns initial rulings in less than 10% of cases.

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