Trump announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve unlikely

Polymarket bettors do not seem confident that Trump will announce a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the US.

With Bitcoin 2024 kicking off this week, all eyes are on what former President Donald Trump will say about Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency industry in general.

Speculations include Polymarket bettors placing bets on whether Trump will announce plans for a US Bitcoin strategic reserve at the conference.

The specific bet will be positive if Donald Trump announces that “a strategic Bitcoin reserve will be created in the United States after he becomes president” by the end of July 28. The primary source of this bet will be official records or transcripts of any speeches at the conference.

If Trump doesn’t mention a reserve plan at the conference, the bet won’t work. Right now, there’s only a 22% chance Trump will announce a reserve by July 28.

When the bet was first created, bettors believed there was a 76% chance Trump would make such a statement.

Trump Creates Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Last week, rumors began circulating on social media that Trump might announce Bitcoin as a US strategic reserve asset during his speech.

The speculation began with Dennis Porter, co-founder of Satoshi Law, who claimed that reliable sources had confirmed Trump’s intentions. Porter’s tweet set off a storm of speculation that lasted through the weekend but lost momentum after Biden announced he was withdrawing from the US presidential race.

If the US were to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, it would strengthen its position as the largest nation-state holder of Bitcoin and reflect Trump’s view that all remaining Bitcoin should be mined in the US.

A strategic reserve asset of Bitcoin would involve holding a significant amount of Bitcoin as part of its reserve portfolio, much like the U.S. Treasury Department does with gold or foreign currencies.