‘Trump Trade’ Starts, BTC Gains 10% Value Against Mexican Peso

The “Trump trade”, which started within the framework of rising bets on the dollar index and rising Treasury yields, continues at full speed with the Republican candidate gaining a significant lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential race.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, rose over 7% during Asian trading hours to record highs above $74,000.

The Latin American currency, which is expected to be most affected by Trump’s tariff plans, fell 3% against the dollar to 20.7080, reaching its lowest level since August 2022. The leading cryptocurrency made big gains in Mexican peso (MXN). According to data platform TradingView, the BTC/MXN pair on Binance is trading at 1.548 million, up nearly 10 percent at the time of writing.

MXN has lost 27% of its value since March, with most of the losses coming from fears of a potential Trump administration resorting to protectionist policies. Earlier this week, Trump reiterated his intention last year to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, one of the United States’ largest trading partners, and warned of an increase of up to 100% if the country does not close the border.

Trump also promised to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which will be reviewed on July 1, 2026. At press time, Associated Press data shows Trump with a 230-210 lead over Kamala Harris.

Gold, which has risen sharply recently, is trading largely unchanged at about $2,740 an ounce despite fears that Trump’s tariff plan could lead to higher inflation.

The rise in the precious metal is likely capped by gains in the dollar index, which broke through 105.00 for the first time since July 9. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose over 20 basis points to 4.46%, reducing the appeal of gold. The rise in bonds may be related to fears that Trump tariffs could complicate the Fed’s plans to reduce borrowing costs.

It is a well-known fact that tariffs create a ripple effect in the global economy by increasing the cost of goods and reducing competition, all of which will contribute to inflationary pressures.

However, both bitcoin and gold are said to be on a long-term upward trajectory due to rising US debt. Gold is up 32% this year, outpacing the S&P 500’s 21% gain by a wide margin. Bitcoin, often touted as digital gold, rose 75% in the same period.