Trump Won, What Will Bitcoin Watch Now?

Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of $76,000 late yesterday after Republican Donald Trump won the US election, ushering in a widely anticipated bullish period in the crypto industry.

According to CoinGecko data, BTC gained 6.6 percent in value in the last 24 hours and increased its 30-day gain to over 21 percent, more than doubling its value compared to last year. The strength in BTC has contributed to a more than 10 percent rise in many cryptocurrencies, from dog-themed tokens to decentralized exchanges. Thus began what has been described as the “Trump trade.”

“BTC has gone through three election cycles since its inception in 2009, each followed by rallies to new highs, and prices have never returned to pre-election levels,” QCP Capital investors said in a Telegram post on Tuesday. “The dollar rose 1.2% to reach its July high of 105, and yields also rose as markets expected stronger economic growth and increased fiscal spending.”

“We expect this upward momentum to remain strong as we enter 2025,” QCP added.

So what else is important for markets in the short term? Following Trump’s victory, investors quickly turned their attention to the Federal Reserve interest rate cut meeting scheduled for later today. The move to lower borrowing costs has increased bullish sentiment among traders as cheap access to money fuels growth in riskier sectors.

Analysts expect a 0.25 percent interest rate cut this week, which will benefit assets such as BTC by directing investors to alternative investments. Polymarket gives a 97% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 1% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

“The interest rate market is signaling uncertainty, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rising to a four-month high of 4.48%,” said Presto Research research analyst Min Jung.

“This increase reflects expectations that Trump’s election victory could lead to higher budget deficits and inflation. Therefore, attention will be focused on Powell’s press conference, especially in November.”

Additionally, some traders state that they do not foresee additional interest rate cuts under the Trump administration.

“Although a decrease in the possibilities of interest rate cuts is expected due to the “friendly” policies proposed by Trump, the market still expects 1.8 cuts this year and 3 cuts next year,” QCP said in its note yesterday.