Trump’s Election Chances Don’t Make a Big Difference to Bitcoin Price

While popular opinion suggests a strong positive correlation between bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price performance and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the US presidency, market data suggests otherwise.

Since Trump’s meeting with bitcoin miners in mid-June, crypto market experts have linked the Republican candidate’s performance in the betting markets to the price of bitcoin.

However, FalconX’s analysis of the three-day change in BTC price and Trump’s probability of winning the presidential election between June 1 and August 15 shows that there is no definitive trend or clear correlation between the two variables.

The X-axis on the chart shows the three-day percentage increase or decrease in the BTC price between June 1 and August 15. The Y-axis represents the increase/decrease in the probability of Trump’s victory. The data changes every 12 hours.

The red dots represent Trump’s probability of entering the White House based on Polymarket contracts between June 29 and July 29. The blue dots represent the Democratic momentum period. The gray dots represent the rest of the period between June 1 and August 15.

The red dots show a scattered pattern, indicating that there is no correlation between changes in Republican rates and changes in the price of BTC. The blue and grey dots show a similar pattern.

Several factors, such as aggressive selling by the German state of Saxony and fears of a supply drain from Mt. Gox’s creditors, have limited the rally in BTC since June and overshadowed the changes brought about by the election.

However, the upcoming elections could become a dominant force in BTC prices as Harris highlights her crypto strategy.