Trump’s lead over Harris widens, but is Polymarket accurate?

Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris has grown on Polymarket, a prediction market that allows users to bet on political outcomes.

As of this writing, Trump’s probability of winning the US presidential election is 55.3%, with Harris following at 44.1%. That nearly 11% margin is the largest since Harris entered the race, reflecting growing bets on Trump’s potential victory.

Election day is less than 25 days away, and both US presidential candidates are active on the campaign trail. Donald Trump hinted at the potential release of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht from prison during a speech in Butler, Pennsylvania, on October 5.

Tesla CEO and Trump supporter Elon Musk appeared at the event, but neither Trump nor Musk made any direct statements about the crypto industry during the event.

Harris has been relatively quiet on crypto, but her recent statements on promoting technologies like artificial intelligence and digital assets have sparked interest among crypto supporters.

Polymarket has gained significant traction this election season, with punters placing big bets on current events. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using crypto.

But Polymarket’s data doesn’t exactly line up with public polls showing Harris leading or remaining competitive in some national polls, according to The Hill.

Is Polymarket true?

Jacob King, an analyst at WhaleWire, cast doubt on the reliability of Polymarket’s forecasts.

In a post on

King also noted that Polymarket is limited to US citizens, so foreign or VPN users are excluded. This limitation hinders the platform’s ability to measure real American voter sentiment.

Many believe Trump will win because he has a slight lead in betting on Polymarket, a crypto betting site.

But this is not a reliable indicator of election results; most crypto bettors tend to lean to the right. Additionally, the site is also banned for US citizens… pic.twitter.com/DYikUfSCAU

— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) October 11, 2024

Polymarket is not allowed in the US due to regulatory restrictions. It operates prediction markets that are considered unregistered binary options trading in violation of U.S. securities laws.

A US District Court recently ruled in favor of the Kalshi prediction market, striking down the CFTC ban on betting on political events in the US. However, the CFTC filed an emergency motion to delay the decision, potentially jeopardizing Kalshi’s future.

Despite the legal victory and a potential shift towards allowing platforms like Polymarket in the US, concerns remain about the impact such markets will have on public confidence in elections.