Trump’s odds on Polymarket surge above Harris, spike to 53%

Donald Trump is back ahead of Kamala Harris in Polymarket, with the odds rising to 53%.

Former President Donald Trump has regained his lead in the upcoming US elections, surpassing Vice President Kamala Harris, according to prediction platform Polymarket.

Trump’s odds have jumped to 53%, overtaking Harris, who previously held the top spot at 54%. Despite rising to 53%, Trump’s current odds are still significantly lower than the 72% peak he had following the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Texas.

The latest increase in Trump’s odds follows recent criticism of Harris’ cautious approach to the crypto industry. At press time, Trump has a 53% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, while Kamala Harris has a 46% chance.

Lookonchain has highlighted an unidentified individual who registered on Polymarket on August 19 and withdrew $205,000 worth of USD Coin (USDC) from Binance.

That amount was used to buy 417,252 “Yes” shares that favored Trump to win the election. After Trump’s odds increased, the bookmaker now has an unrealized profit of $15,000. The GOP candidate now sees over $85 million in volume wagered on his potential victory, as opposed to $77.5 million for Harris. Both candidates’ volumes continued to rise on Polymarket.

Harris draws criticism

Let’s recall that Harris’ leadership at the start has been strengthened by his team’s increasing efforts to influence the crypto industry, especially with the Crypto4Harris campaign and a recent roundtable.

But recent developments have triggered questions about the Democrat’s willingness to improve the regulatory climate around cryptocurrencies in the U.S. For example, the Democratic National Committee’s 2024 platform specifically excluded any direct mention of cryptocurrency, which has raised concerns.

Additionally, the Kamala Harris campaign has expressed its intention to support a 44.6% tax on capital gains, representing the highest rate recorded in U.S. history. The move has drawn further criticism from prominent crypto industry leaders.

Kamala Harris announces plan to raise long-term capital gains tax to 44.6% If you own any stocks or crypto and vote for her, you’re an idiot.

Make sure you send this to anyone you know who owns stocks or cryptocurrencies so you can tell them you warned them.

— Matt Wallace (@MattWallace888) August 20, 2024

Meanwhile, Harris’ aide Brian Nelson revealed that the Democratic candidate has pledged to support measures that will help grow the crypto industry, according to Bloomberg, while Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson expressed skepticism.

No specific policy or proposal. Just talk. Will Gary be fired? What legislation do you support? What executive actions will be enacted? Why haven’t you changed policy IMMEDIATELY since you became President?

Sorry there is ZERO trust. We need specific, tangible actions. https://t.co/iWG6Jq0Ggt

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) August 21, 2024

Harris has faced criticism for not defending the industry more strongly, especially as former President Donald Trump positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate. Trump’s platform includes promises to block the creation of a CBDC, fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and even block the government from selling Bitcoin holdings.