Trump’s Polymarket lead weakens, Bitcoin drops to $68,000

Polymarket data shows that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s lead over his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, has weakened but he maintains his dominance.

The former president’s chances, who were twice impeached, dropped from 66.9% to 54%, according to the data.

Meanwhile, Harris’ chances increased from 33.5% to 46.1%. This change reflects changing market sentiment as Election Day, November 5, approaches.

Source: Polimarket

Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket allows its users to buy and sell stocks on different real-world outcomes by betting on stablecoins (USDC) instead of more volatile cryptocurrencies.

A Polymarket gambler known as Théo is betting more than $30 million on Trump’s victory, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Iowa poll, Epstein tapes

The shift in momentum comes as the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results bode well for Harris.

Harris leads Trump by three percentage points in Iowa, according to prominent American pollster Ann Selzer, who is known to be extremely accurate.

Harris maintained 47% support among likely voters, compared to Trump’s 44%, according to the poll. This represents a major shift from the September poll, which showed Trump with a 4-point advantage.

Selzer told Newsweek that the same method was used this year as was used in 2016 and 2020, the two years Trump won Iowa.

Meanwhile, The Daily Beast recently published recordings of interviews author Michael Wolff conducted with convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein in 2017.

Epstein, who spoke at length in interviews about his decade-long friendship with Trump, died in August 2019 in a New York City jail where he was awaiting trial.

Trump and Harris have different stances on crypto

Candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation have become increasingly relevant to investors. Trump has emerged as a vocal supporter of crypto.

He even made a public commitment to support cryptocurrency during an event at Mar-a-Lago in May. Trump’s campaign’s decision to accept crypto donations further reinforces this pro-crypto stance.

Harris’ approach to crypto has been more measured. In September, he stated that his administration would support crypto as part of a broader strategy to increase economic competitiveness.

Although her statements were less definitive than Trump’s open endorsements, Harris did receive support from Ripple(XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated more than $11.8 million to her campaign.

Larsen told CNBC that he believes the Democratic nominee will take a completely different approach to crypto than President Joe Biden, who has been criticized for choosing Gary Gensler to head the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin (BTC) price reflects the uncertain political environment as government surveys and Polymarket forecasts continue to fluctuate.

This is evident from its recent price drop to $68,000. According to the latest data, the global cryptocurrency market value decreased by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion.

Bitcoin dropped as low as $67,300 but managed to rise above $68,000 at the time of writing. Ethereum (ETH) is no exception as it dropped to the $2,400 level.

Source: CoinGecko