US election bets make up 88% of Polymarket’s volume

A significant portion (88%) of Polygon-based Polymarket’s 2024 trading volume came from betting on US election results, according to Dune Analytics data.

Elections in the US have dominated activity on blockchain prediction platforms like Polymarket, which has recorded over $650 million in trades this year. Almost half of that volume occurred in July alone, with traders placing significant bets on candidates like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becoming president in November.

Former 1confirmation general partner Richard Chen noted that Dune data showed that markets tagged “2024 Presidential Election Winner” and “Democratic Candidate” accounted for 50% of the platform’s trading volume.

Weekly Polymarket trading volume as of August 19 | Source: Dune Analytics, Richard Chen

Bets on the election have outperformed bets on other events, such as the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund in January and even the Paris Olympics this month.

Beyond non-election events, interest in the Polygon-backed betting service continued throughout the year, with volume increases unrelated to America’s presidential ballot in January, May, June and August.

While Polymarket has been a strong performer this year, there is still question as to whether it can sustain its momentum in a non-election year. Chen believes that crypto whales and the platform’s current momentum will continue to provide sufficient volume.

Wallet count is skewed more toward non-election markets than volume, suggesting that election markets are more dominated by whales.https://t.co/3z3SFscLqB

— Richard Chen (@richardchen39) August 19, 2024

Polymarket: Harris ahead of Trump

Users placing bets on the prediction market have placed bets that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump on the ballot.

Shortly after the Republican candidate survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally, Harris surpassed Trump’s previous lead, crypto.news reported. Harris had a 51% chance of winning, while Trump had a 47% chance, and Polymarket users had placed a total of $642 million in bets on the election outcome.