US election hype boosts Polymarket trade volume to $533m in September

Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, recorded a trading volume of $533.51 million in September, largely driven by interest in the 2024 US presidential election and geopolitical developments in the East medium

That’s up $61.51 million from August’s $472 million, according to Dune Analytics. The platform also saw a 41% increase in active users, from 63,616 in August to 90,037 in September.

The growth of Polymarket

With the US election just over a month away, demand for Polymarket has increased. Data from Dune Analytics shows that the platform’s most active market, “2024 Presidential Election Winner,” recorded $89.07 million in trading volume over the past 30 days. As of October 4, the odds for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tie, with each candidate having a 50% chance of winning.

September 30 marked its busiest day yet, with 16,702 participants placing trades, contributing to a record 89,958 new account registrations for the month. The platform’s highest daily volume was initially recorded on September 11, but new daily trading records were set on October 2 and 3, indicating sustained momentum as the election day

Although open interest dipped slightly in early September, it recovered, hitting a high of $136 million fueled by rumors of a potential token launch. A report from The Information revealed that the blockchain prediction service is in talks to raise $50 million in funding.

The company is also considering releasing its token, which could allow users to verify the results of real-world events.

Electoral stakes dominate

At the end of September, election-related predictions accounted for 84% of total market activity, with 64% of users participating in election betting. Other high-interest markets included predictions about geopolitical events such as “Are Israeli forces entering Lebanon in September?” and financial forecasts such as “Fed Interest Rates: November 2024”.

Polymarket’s recent surge in activity is related to growing interest in decentralized prediction markets, driven by global events such as elections, economic policies, and rising geopolitical tensions that have captured the public’s attention.

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