Will BTC rise to $100,000 or stop at $88,000 first? (Analysis)

The recent explosive price action in Bitcoin has resulted in a significant increase in profit-taking among long-term holders (LTH).

According to a Glassnode review, LTH has achieved $2.02 billion in daily profits, eclipsing the figure recorded in March 2024 and marking a new all-time high (ATH).

Long-term holders increase distributions

The blockchain intelligence platform’s report shows that long-term BTC holders distributed 507,000 coins since September, representing a substantial release from the previously idle supply.

While the amount is lower than the 934,000 BTC sold when the cryptocurrency recovered earlier this year, it still represents a more aggressive approach. On average, 0.27% of the total LTH supply is distributed daily, a level only surpassed 177 times in Bitcoin’s entire trading history.

Glassnode believes this activity is critical to price discovery as it is reintroducing large volumes of supply into liquid circulation. In the past, these periods of increased profit-taking coincided with strong entry demands, a key component of sustaining bullish momentum.

A closer examination of distribution patterns revealed that coins held for six months to a year are behind most of the selling pressure. This cohort represents at least 35% of the total profits made, which comes to about $12.6 billion.

According to Glassnode analysis, the coins were mostly picked in 2023 and reflect a swing trading approach by investors who took advantage of the momentum that followed the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January to January

Conversely, those who have held their coins for more than a year have been more conservative in their spending, suggesting that more seasoned heads remain bullish on BTC’s long-term prospects.

Supply “Air Gap” below $88,000 raises correction issues

Bitcoin’s recent run brought it within striking distance of $100,000. It hit a high of $99,645 before dropping over $6,000 as short-term holders (STH) took profits.

It is currently changing hands at just over $96,000, with Glassnode data highlighting a potential risk zone below $88,000, where minimal trading occurred during the last rally.

Glassnode says this so-called “air gap” in the supply distribution could indicate a vulnerable price area, especially if demand weakens or profit-taking increases.

Given BTC’s historical price discovery process involving cycles of upswings, corrections and consolidations, experts suggest that the lack of substantial trading volume in the $88,000 range may require a pullback to establish further support strong before the coin can confidently cross $100,000.

They further suggested that for the cryptocurrency to have a sustainable rise, the market needs to absorb the ongoing selling pressure. However, given the jump in profits made by LTHs, there is an increase in supply in the market despite strong demand, which Glassnode believes may affect prices in the short term.

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