Will Markets Continue to Fall Amid $1.6B in Crypto Options Expiring Today?

About 18,800 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, October 11, with a theoretical value of about $1.1 billion.

Today’s option expiration is very similar to last week’s as implied volatility is lower and expiration events are now smaller. It is therefore unlikely to affect the spot markets, which have been retreating this week.

Expiration of Bitcoin Options

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.91, meaning that the amount of long (call) and short (put) contracts expiring are more evenly matched. The peak pain point, or the level at which most losses will occur, is $62,000, about $1,500 higher than current spot prices.

Also, open interest (OI), or the value or number of open option contracts yet to expire, is still high at the $70,000 strike price at $790 million. OI at the $80,000 strike price has fallen to $723 million, and according to Deribit there is still $964 million at the $100,000 strike price.

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live noted that markets continued to weaken and the key $60,000 level was “now hotly contested.”

“The first two weeks of the fourth quarter of this year were poor, the options market is also more depressed and the current option position has fallen to a new low since 2023.”

October 11 Options data
18,000 BTC options expire with a Put Call ratio of 0.91, a Maxpain point of $62,000 and a notional value of $1.1 billion.
212,000 ETH options are about to expire with a Put Call ratio of 0.4, a Maxpain point of $2,450 and a notional value of $510 million.
With… pic.twitter.com/tWutpxCora

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) October 11, 2024

However, the Greeks added that a slow market “also generates new trading opportunities” and is “perfect for creating some medium and long-term calls at a low level.”

In addition to current Bitcoin options, there are 212,000 Ethereum options nearing expiration with a put/call ratio of 0.4, a maximum pain point of $2,450, and a notional value of $510 million . This brings Friday’s crypto options expiration to $1.6 billion for the week.

Crypto market outlook

Spot markets have continued their retreat this week, with total market capitalization down 1.4% on the day to $2.21 trillion at the time of writing. However, they have been side by side for more than half a year now.

Bitcoin fell to $58,900 in late trading on Thursday, but rallied to regain $60,500 during the Asian trading session on Friday morning. The asset has now lost more than 8% since the end of September as “Uptober” has yet to materialize.

Ethereum was similarly bearish, dropping to $2,335 before a minor recovery to regain $2,400 at the time of writing. More FUD has been released with rumors that the Chinese government is selling a large amount of confiscated ETH to the PlusToken Ponzi.

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