Wintermute to launch Polymarket competitor with Chaos Labs

Wintermute plans to enter the on-chain prediction market by focusing its first betting pool on the US presidential election.

Crypto trading firm and market maker Wintermute has announced its ongoing work on on-chain betting platform OutcomeMarket. The decentralized protocol will use Chaos Labs’ Oracle technology to handle pricing and risk management.

According to the statement, Wintermute’s prediction platform will launch with two tokens, TRUMP and HARRIS, representing the Republican and Democratic US presidential candidates.

OutcomeMarket is said to be first available on major blockchain networks like Ethereum (ETH), Coinbase’s Base, and layer-2 chain Arbitrum (ARB). The Web3 startup added that the tokens will appear on decentralized finance ecosystems and exchanges to improve the trading experience.

Through OutcomeMarket, tokens will be available on DeFi and listed on multiple trading platforms, increasing utility and improving accessibility for a wider audience

Wintermute on new US election prediction platform

Own your results with OutcomeMarket

Wintermute is developing a permissionless smart contract for a new US presidential election prediction market

The market will be accessible and supported via Ethereum, Base and Arbitrum @chaos_laboratuvarları‘s Edge Proves Oracle

The output of 2 tokens:… pic.twitter.com/N5IqvOqDaL

— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) September 17, 2024

Wintermute eyes Polymarket’s arena, but CFTC scrutiny looms

Wintermute’s latest venture could aim to take market share from Polymarket, one of the largest on-chain outcome betting platforms that has over $1 billion in revenue from election-related betting.

Bloomberg has further legitimized decentralized prediction markets by integrating Polymarket’s election data into its terminal. This collaboration comes despite regulations that prevent US bettors from using Polymarket.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken a firm stance against election betting contracts, arguing that big-money bets can influence outcomes.

CFTC lawyers tried to delay Kalshi’s listing of the prediction market, but a judge overturned that. Still, the regulator continues to challenge Kalshi in court.

In a speech at Georgetown University on September 17, CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said the watchdog would also look into offshore betting platforms with U.S. users. Behnam emphasized that the agency’s proposed ban on prediction markets is part of a fight against what it sees as illegal activity and market manipulation.